Mallya’s Musings

Petrol and Diesel prices… July 2, 2009

The Govt has decided to hike prices of Diesel and Petrol by Rs 4 and Rs 2 respectively. Given the fact that the subsidy burden on the Govt is about Rs 30000 crores after the hike; not a very good move, I must say. The subsidy burden was much more before that. The Govt has decided not to hike prices of LPG and Kerosene in spite of the steep rise in international prices. I don’t even remember when the last hike for Kerosene was..

I am for deregulation of petro products. It’s high time. Till when will the Indian tax payer keep paying for the energy needs of our people. Again, it’s you and me paying for the petrol of a rich business man who has evaded tax. Not good right? I think subsidy should be given in all products only for BPL card holders and not for everyone, as it is now. I think it’s high time that the Indian tax payer wakes up and protests regulation in prices. We have already paid enough money for Haj, petrol, fertilizers and what not… What do we get in return bad roads and additional taxation on our income.. Time to wake up people…

India’s New Prime Minister is MMS May 19, 2009

Yes, my predictions have gone horribly wrong. Congress won at least 80 seats more than what was expected and the BJP at least 40 seats lesser. Potential BJP allies like TDP, AIADMK didn’t do as spectacularly as was expected of them. Being a staunch supporter of the BJP, I am disappointed with the results.But I am happy about the fact that a single party has got over 200 seats after 18 long years and is in a position to rule India decisively.

There are a few good things about this election…
1. One party has a clear hold on the affairs of the Govt. PM doesn’t have to run to any party before taking decisions. He has the time and mandate to prove his capabilities. With a noted economist at the forefront one can expect fast forwarding of India’s reform process which was kept in abeyance, thanks to the Left. The Govt doesn’t have any reasons to delay major policy decisions anymore.

2. The Left parties have become irrelevant in Indian politics and this surely is a good sign. Looking at the way the Left parties vetoed almost all policy decisions of the previous Govt and also at Left ruled states, one can safely say that they are enemies of development. They follow a outdated ideology which doesn’t find space in modern India. Hope to see them getting wiped out soon.

3. Almost all opportunistic regional parties have been given a befitting reply by the Indian electorate. They have either been wiped out or are on the verge getting wiped out. RJD, TRS, PMK, JMM, SP, BSP, MDMK, JD(S), AGP, INLD etc have lost their position, as formidable regional players with considerable bargaining power. India is slowly but surely moving towards bipolar polity. This is a good thing as regional parties would go with either the Congress or the BJP during elections and would think 100 times before ditching them

India’s Next Prime Minister May 9, 2009

Looking at the way things are shaping up in the run up to counting, it looks like the week after May 16th is going to be very interesting.

One thing which looks more or less confirmed is that Manmohan Singh is not going to be India’s next PM (relief, I must say). The UPA no longer exists. Congress will probably win more or less the same number of seats as 2004. Lalu, Paswan, Karunanidhi, Mulayam will lose more than half the seats that they held last time. So if you consider the parties that are with the UPA (or supporting them) currently, they will fall well short of the majority after elections. They have already sensed that and have been wooing Nitish, who has already given them the cold shoulder and that has distanced them from both Lalu and Paswan. Even if they succeed in wooing him successfully, it will be at the expense of Lalu and Paswan. Same case with Jaya, Maya. So at the end of it one can safely say that Congress wont be leading the next Govt.

Now looking at non UPA parties, Nitish will gain in Bihar, Jayalalitha will gain in TN, Maya will gain some seats in UP. The likelihood of these parties supporting Congress is very low. They are likely to support either the Third Front or the NDA.

The third front looks like a group of parties all wanting the PM’s post for itself. It looks highly unlikely that Jaya and Maya will get together in one alliance. If they set their differences apart and decide on a consensus candidate, they would need support from the Congress to form the Govt. This is going to be similar to the 1996 arrangement when Gowda became PM. This time around it looks like Prakash Karat will be the bakra . But I really doubt if the third front plus Congress will get enough seats for this arrangement to happen. If you give the Congress 145 seats and the third front 100 (I am being very considerate here. Personally I don’t think they will win so many) they would still need around 30 seats to get a full majority which looks highly impossible. TRS has already shaken itself free from the Third Front and chances of more parties following suit look very high.

Two possible post poll arrangements, involving Congress, don’t seem possible anymore.

Now, coming to NDA, the BJP most likely will win more or less the same number of seats as last time. Its allies will do better in their respective states. They have new allies in RLD, TRS and AGP who will add more seats to NDA’s kitty. Then they have former allies in TDP, AIADMK who might just cross over to NDA again. This combination of parties I believe will have the numbers to form the next Govt at the center.

P.S. If they are still short BJD or AIADMK might give them outside support.

450 not out…. April 15, 2009

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Who’s Next? Manmohan? April 6, 2009

When I was reading through “Sonia is the Modern Robert Clive” section of Subramaniam Swamy’s “Do You Know Sonia?” article, I started wondering if Dr Swamy had missed anyone and if if there was someone in waiting.

Then we hear about the death of Priyanka Vadra’s father in law. I started researching on net about Vadra’s family and tried to find out what business he is into, his family background etc.

He currently deals in wooden handicrafts and brass items. Just wondering if that means dealing in Indian antiques. Vadra according to some sites used to work in a garage before getting married to Priyanka. According to one news report in rediff he is an jewelery exporter. He has got a website www.artexonline.com. I leave it to you to guess what exactly he is doing. My guess is as good as your’s in this matter. Let us leave this matter here.

Very surprising is the fact that he is in the non frisking list of Indian VVIP’s. This privileged list has Prime Minister, Dalai Lama, former Prime Ministers and presidents and other VVIPs. This privilige is not available to Chiefs of Army, Navy and Air Force staff. His being in the non frisking list amounts to gross misuse of power.

Like in the Gandhi family, deaths in this family started occurring after Priyanka’s marriage to Robert. The nature of deaths, like in other Gandhi family deaths, are all mysterious. Robert’s elder sister died in a car crash, his younger brother was found dead in his house and now his father found dead hanging.

And now to the most important question, Who’s Next? If the Congress comes to power, I think Dr. Singh will have to pay a price. Sonia has already declared him as their PM candidate. So, he will be PM for sure, but for how long? Maybe an year and after that Dr. Singh would have to pave way for Raul Vinci. How the transition happens will be interesting.